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This is my second article in this series, I wrote my first article of this series on Jan 10, 2009. People can read this article by visiting Who will win 2009 Loksabha (Parliament) election in India? (Opinion poll). In last two and half month, Indian politics have seen many ups and downs. Both UPA and NDA are losing their old allies on the cost of few new allies. BJP got major jolt in Orissa when BJD decided to go alone in this election, thus leaving behind 11 year old alliance of BJP-BJD in Orissa.
Congress also got similar jolt from RJD, LJP and MDMK. BJP gained new allies in the form of Ajit Singh in UP and AJP in Assam. Similarly, Congress succeeded in making alliance with Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. At the same time, we also saw third front taking shape and increase in strength of regional parties. Therefore, present predictions are going to show different results as compared to last predictions. People can access latest prediction on parties and states by visiting these new statewise predictions- Loksabha Election 2009 opinion poll/predictions (State wise) 4.
The main picture which is becoming clear in front of us is that big national parties are becoming totally dependent on small regional parties. It is now very-2 unlikely that any of two big national parties of India BJP and Congress will reach anywhere near 272 mark to form government at centre on their own. It is also clear that these parties will even fall in getting more than 200 seats on their own. Therefore, this time we can see even more complex arithmetic to form government at centre.
This time Loksabha will definitely be a hung Loksabha with multiple options open for different party. Today, UPA has become very weak after the exit of RJD, SP and LJP from UPA. Presently, these three regional parties RJD, SP and LJP have created their own alliance in UP and Bihar. This RJD, SP and LJP alliance is likely to get 40-60 seats; therefore, it will become very difficult for UPA to make any government without their support. Congress is likely to emerge as biggest political party in this election by winning 145-165 seats. Present, UPA is likely to get 190-210 seats.
Therefore, only hope present in front of Congress lead UPA is to get support of RJD-SP-LJP combine to make next government. On the other hand, BJP is likely to get 135-155 seats, thus making it second largest party after Congress, though, difference is likely to remain small between the seats of Congress and BJP. NDA as whole is likely to get 180-200 seats. After election, NDA can look towards AIADMK, TDP, BJD and BSP for support because they are likely to get 50-80 seats. Similar situation is also present in front of third front which is likely to get 90-120 seats; however, problem of unity among members of third front can cause some of third front partner supporting either UPA or NDA.
Chances of third front making government with the support of UPA or NDA are very-2 remote. At the end, we can say that present fight has become very interesting and slight up or down in vote share can make or break chances of any particular alliance. Both UPA and NDA looks to have good chances for making a government at centre with slight marginal edge for UPA. Regional parties will definitely decide the fate of next government at centre with three women politicians Jayalalitha, Mamta Banerji and Mayawati playing crucial role in the formation of next government.
Communist parties- 25-35
Shiv Sena- 12-17
Akali Dal- 5-7
Update 12 April, 2009- BJP first time looks to be gaining slightly and there are good chances that BJP will emerge as biggest political party after Loksabha Election. On the other hand, Congress looks to be slightly losing its ground and Congress may fail in getting more than 150 seats this time. First time, it also looks that NDA will get more seats than present UPA (minus parties like SP, LSP, RJD). For more visit- Loksabha Election 2009 opinion poll/predictions (State wise) 4
Expected Party Position Congress BJP=
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Disclaimer: These predictions are for information purpose only based on available data and information. Author is not currently member of any political party in India. Author also tries to provide information in unbiased manner not favouring or disapproving any political party. People are advised to vote freely without getting influenced by these predictions.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
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