Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Who will Win Loksabha (Parliamentary) Election 2014 in India? (Opinion/Exit Poll)

Finally, it is time for Loksabha (parliamentary) election in India. Loksabha election is biggest elections in India and the world because through this election billion plus population of India chooses their new government. Due to the inovelemnt of so many people and huge geographical area, it remains a hard task for Election commission of India to conduit free and fair elections.

India is a country of multi-party politics where there is no restriction of forming a new party and due to this reason Indian politics become very dramatic and challenging. From last two decades, we are seeing multi-party/ coalition governments in India. For the last ten years, Congress lead UPA alliance is in power at the center.  This time fight is very tough for Congress as it is facing strong anti-incumbency due to some of unpopular steps it took in last five years.

The biggest worry for common people of India is increasing prices of common goods because due to high rise in prices of essential items for household use, it has become very difficult for common people to survive. People are also worried for widespread corruption and decreasing Job opportunities for people. Recently, we saw the rise of AAP, a new political party by Arving Kejriwal which come to power in Delhi because of corruption issue. This rise of AAP suggests that common people want a change in the system.

The main fight at center will be between Congress and BJP lead alliances namely UPA and NDA. Before, the start of the election, both parties look for new and strong partners to win next election. Third front of regional parties is also in a race and it is also likely to show good performance as per the some estimates.

There are a total of 543 seats in Loksabha and any party needs support of 273 Loksabha MPs to form the next government. As per all the estimates, UPA alliance is going to suffer in this election because of its unpopular moves and increase in prices of essential items. Some estimates and polls even suggest that UPA can land at less than 100 seats. On the other hand, NDA alliance and Third Front are likely to make gains as per the trends and polls.

The rise AAP and presence of many regional parties make it hard to predict exact results. There are many ifs and whats in all this prediction like Will AAP be able repeat or improve its performance? Will people vote for regional parties or National parties? Despite all these errors, we can predict a fairly good picture which is not exact but near about actual results.

If we collect all Data and consider all facts, then we can get some idea of would be the result of Loksabha Election 2014

UPA alliance -  100-120
NDA allince -   215-245
Others   -           200-250



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