Skip to main content

Who will win 2009 Loksabha (Parliament) election in India? (Opinion poll) 2

For latest results visit-Loksabha Election 2009 Results (Live Update) Live update Orissa/Andhra Pradesh Assembly election 2009 results Live Loksabha/Assembly Election 2009 result Blog

This is my second article in this series, I wrote my first article of this series on Jan 10, 2009. People can read this article by visiting Who will win 2009 Loksabha (Parliament) election in India? (Opinion poll). In last two and half month, Indian politics have seen many ups and downs. Both UPA and NDA are losing their old allies on the cost of few new allies. BJP got major jolt in Orissa when BJD decided to go alone in this election, thus leaving behind 11 year old alliance of BJP-BJD in Orissa.

Congress also got similar jolt from RJD, LJP and MDMK. BJP gained new allies in the form of Ajit Singh in UP and AJP in Assam. Similarly, Congress succeeded in making alliance with Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. At the same time, we also saw third front taking shape and increase in strength of regional parties. Therefore, present predictions are going to show different results as compared to last predictions. People can access latest prediction on parties and states by visiting these new statewise predictions- Loksabha Election 2009 opinion poll/predictions (State wise) 4.

The main picture which is becoming clear in front of us is that big national parties are becoming totally dependent on small regional parties. It is now very-2 unlikely that any of two big national parties of India BJP and Congress will reach anywhere near 272 mark to form government at centre on their own. It is also clear that these parties will even fall in getting more than 200 seats on their own. Therefore, this time we can see even more complex arithmetic to form government at centre.

This time Loksabha will definitely be a hung Loksabha with multiple options open for different party. Today, UPA has become very weak after the exit of RJD, SP and LJP from UPA. Presently, these three regional parties RJD, SP and LJP have created their own alliance in UP and Bihar. This RJD, SP and LJP alliance is likely to get 40-60 seats; therefore, it will become very difficult for UPA to make any government without their support. Congress is likely to emerge as biggest political party in this election by winning 145-165 seats. Present, UPA is likely to get 190-210 seats.

Therefore, only hope present in front of Congress lead UPA is to get support of RJD-SP-LJP combine to make next government. On the other hand, BJP is likely to get 135-155 seats, thus making it second largest party after Congress, though, difference is likely to remain small between the seats of Congress and BJP. NDA as whole is likely to get 180-200 seats. After election, NDA can look towards AIADMK, TDP, BJD and BSP for support because they are likely to get 50-80 seats. Similar situation is also present in front of third front which is likely to get 90-120 seats; however, problem of unity among members of third front can cause some of third front partner supporting either UPA or NDA.

Chances of third front making government with the support of UPA or NDA are very-2 remote. At the end, we can say that present fight has become very interesting and slight up or down in vote share can make or break chances of any particular alliance. Both UPA and NDA looks to have good chances for making a government at centre with slight marginal edge for UPA. Regional parties will definitely decide the fate of next government at centre with three women politicians Jayalalitha, Mamta Banerji and Mayawati playing crucial role in the formation of next government.


Congress- 145-155
BJP- 137-147
Communist parties- 25-35
BSP- 20-25
SP- 25-30
AIDMK- 14-20
TDP- 10-14
RJD- 10-15
JDU- 10-15
Shiv Sena- 12-17
NCP- 10-15
TC- 8-12
DMK- 10-14
BJD- 5-9
Akali Dal- 5-7
AJP- 3-5
LJP- 3-5
INL- 2-4
NC- 3-4

Update 12 April, 2009- BJP first time looks to be gaining slightly and there are good chances that BJP will emerge as biggest political party after Loksabha Election. On the other hand, Congress looks to be slightly losing its ground and Congress may fail in getting more than 150 seats this time. First time, it also looks that NDA will get more seats than present UPA (minus parties like SP, LSP, RJD). For more visit- Loksabha Election 2009 opinion poll/predictions (State wise) 4

Expected Party Position Congress BJP=
BJP 150-165
Congress 135-150





Also visit- Read all posts related to Loksabha Election 2009

Disclaimer: These predictions are for information purpose only based on available data and information. Author is not currently member of any political party in India. Author also tries to provide information in unbiased manner not favouring or disapproving any political party. People are advised to vote freely without getting influenced by these predictions.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Benefit of Adding Fastag to the Vehicle (Paytm Fastag)

  Today, India is progressing in every field and we are seeing many new improvements coming to our lives. One such improvement is mandatory to use of fastag on all vehicles in India. With this change, we can see the saving of time of commuters and saving of valuable fuel. As per the Indian transport minister, with the use of fastag on vehicles, we can hope to see a saving of Rs 20,000 crore. I hope that it will improve the management of vehicles on the various toll plazas. I have many bad experiences on various toll plazas due to manual operation and high rush.  Already, toll collectors and people are finding this scheme of fastag very helpful. I have already installed fastag on my both vehicles two years back. So far, Paytm fastag is the most used fastag in India because it is linked to the Paytm wallet which makes it easy to add cash and make payments. I am also using Paytm Fastag on one of my main vehicles and my experience is very smooth with it. It is very easy to buy Paytm Fasta

Pens as Promotional Tools for a Successful Marketing

 Sometimes, we ignore the importance of small things as promotional material. However, in reality, these small things if distributed properly can make a big difference in the promotion of a product or service. Today, marketing of any product or service is very important because of high competition in the market. People mostly prefer to buy products or services which they know exist. Therefore, it is very important to use all available tools to market your products or service. A simple product like theme twisted pens can play a major role in your marketing campaign and thus attracting a good number of customers. Lots of companies use pens as promotional material to increase the brand value of their product or service. You can easily give pens to your customers or potential customers so that they always become aware about your brand when they use the pen. There are many examples to use pens as successful promotional tools. There are many online retailers and pen company which help

A new 15 year old Buddha

In Nepal, a new Buddha is in making. Recently a person called Ram Bahadur Bomjon from Nepal has been fasting and meditating for the last six months beneath a tree. In him, people are seeing a new Buddha. This incident has happened in the Bara district of Nepal. Thousands of pilgrims have started visiting this place. There is news that Ram has not broken his fast  even a single time .  For the last six months, he has not moved, even to relieve himself. His place is not much away from the place where the original Buddha had done his meditation. According to Ram, he does this meditation because a snake has beaten him. He is also asking people for not saying him Buddha because he is telling that he is not having the powers like Buddha.. kgw. arvindkatoch1 Read - 15-year-old Buddha to controversial Figure 

11 Deaths from Swine Flu

Number of deaths from Swine Flu has increased to 11 in India and there are estimates that these numbers can increase further. Swine Flu cases are also coming from other parts of India from Jammu and Kashmir to Kerala. So far condition is under control and government is also planning to allow private hospitals to conduct test for Swine Flu and treat Swine Flu patients; however, Swine Flu tests will cost around Rs 25000 in private hospitals and people will required to buy a strip of Tamiflu tablet for Rs 4000. Therefore, most of people definitely like to treat themselves in Govt Hospital because they are treating people for free. Govt of India is stockpiling Tamiflu tablet for any emergency condition, Govt has already sending Tamilu tablets to all district headquarters. People are advised to avoid public gatherings and use all precautions to avoid this flu because prevention is better than cure. Also visit- Swine Flu symptoms and precautions What is Swine Flu (Influenza)? Why it is da

About Shahid Kapoor

Today, Shahid Kapoor is one name in Indian film industry which does not need any introduction. With his talent and hard work, Shahid has proved all his critics wrong who at one time labelled him as flop or childish hero. Shahid kapoor showed his potential with his super success and performance oriented films like “Jab we Met” recently and earlier “Vivah”. Today, Shahid is a hot star in Indian cinema and represent the class of new and young heroes in India. Future definitely looks with him as many his good films are coming. Below, find some interesting points about Shahid Kapoor. 1) HE was born on 25 Feb, 1981 in Mumbai. 2) His height is 5' 7" (1.70 m). 3) His weight is 70 kg. 4) His parents name is Pankaj Kapoor and Neelima Azim. 5) His parents divorced each other when he was just 3 year old. 6) His parents both are actors and have acted in films and serials. His mother is also a classical dancer. 7) He has one brother and sister. 8) His zodiac sign is Pisces. 9) He has fea