Skip to main content

Who will win 2009 Loksabha (Parliament) election in India? (Opinion poll) 2

For latest results visit-Loksabha Election 2009 Results (Live Update) Live update Orissa/Andhra Pradesh Assembly election 2009 results Live Loksabha/Assembly Election 2009 result Blog

This is my second article in this series, I wrote my first article of this series on Jan 10, 2009. People can read this article by visiting Who will win 2009 Loksabha (Parliament) election in India? (Opinion poll). In last two and half month, Indian politics have seen many ups and downs. Both UPA and NDA are losing their old allies on the cost of few new allies. BJP got major jolt in Orissa when BJD decided to go alone in this election, thus leaving behind 11 year old alliance of BJP-BJD in Orissa.

Congress also got similar jolt from RJD, LJP and MDMK. BJP gained new allies in the form of Ajit Singh in UP and AJP in Assam. Similarly, Congress succeeded in making alliance with Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. At the same time, we also saw third front taking shape and increase in strength of regional parties. Therefore, present predictions are going to show different results as compared to last predictions. People can access latest prediction on parties and states by visiting these new statewise predictions- Loksabha Election 2009 opinion poll/predictions (State wise) 4.

The main picture which is becoming clear in front of us is that big national parties are becoming totally dependent on small regional parties. It is now very-2 unlikely that any of two big national parties of India BJP and Congress will reach anywhere near 272 mark to form government at centre on their own. It is also clear that these parties will even fall in getting more than 200 seats on their own. Therefore, this time we can see even more complex arithmetic to form government at centre.

This time Loksabha will definitely be a hung Loksabha with multiple options open for different party. Today, UPA has become very weak after the exit of RJD, SP and LJP from UPA. Presently, these three regional parties RJD, SP and LJP have created their own alliance in UP and Bihar. This RJD, SP and LJP alliance is likely to get 40-60 seats; therefore, it will become very difficult for UPA to make any government without their support. Congress is likely to emerge as biggest political party in this election by winning 145-165 seats. Present, UPA is likely to get 190-210 seats.

Therefore, only hope present in front of Congress lead UPA is to get support of RJD-SP-LJP combine to make next government. On the other hand, BJP is likely to get 135-155 seats, thus making it second largest party after Congress, though, difference is likely to remain small between the seats of Congress and BJP. NDA as whole is likely to get 180-200 seats. After election, NDA can look towards AIADMK, TDP, BJD and BSP for support because they are likely to get 50-80 seats. Similar situation is also present in front of third front which is likely to get 90-120 seats; however, problem of unity among members of third front can cause some of third front partner supporting either UPA or NDA.

Chances of third front making government with the support of UPA or NDA are very-2 remote. At the end, we can say that present fight has become very interesting and slight up or down in vote share can make or break chances of any particular alliance. Both UPA and NDA looks to have good chances for making a government at centre with slight marginal edge for UPA. Regional parties will definitely decide the fate of next government at centre with three women politicians Jayalalitha, Mamta Banerji and Mayawati playing crucial role in the formation of next government.


Congress- 145-155
BJP- 137-147
Communist parties- 25-35
BSP- 20-25
SP- 25-30
AIDMK- 14-20
TDP- 10-14
RJD- 10-15
JDU- 10-15
Shiv Sena- 12-17
NCP- 10-15
TC- 8-12
DMK- 10-14
BJD- 5-9
Akali Dal- 5-7
AJP- 3-5
LJP- 3-5
INL- 2-4
NC- 3-4

Update 12 April, 2009- BJP first time looks to be gaining slightly and there are good chances that BJP will emerge as biggest political party after Loksabha Election. On the other hand, Congress looks to be slightly losing its ground and Congress may fail in getting more than 150 seats this time. First time, it also looks that NDA will get more seats than present UPA (minus parties like SP, LSP, RJD). For more visit- Loksabha Election 2009 opinion poll/predictions (State wise) 4

Expected Party Position Congress BJP=
BJP 150-165
Congress 135-150





Also visit- Read all posts related to Loksabha Election 2009

Disclaimer: These predictions are for information purpose only based on available data and information. Author is not currently member of any political party in India. Author also tries to provide information in unbiased manner not favouring or disapproving any political party. People are advised to vote freely without getting influenced by these predictions.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Create your free social Network website

Below, I am going to share few free websites which are offering free social networking solutions to people. With the help of these websites, it is very easy for any person to create his/her own free social network website. Some of these mediums have already become very popular and millions of people from across the world have created their own social networking websites. Whole process of creating a free social network website is very easy and it takes only two-three minutes to get own personalised social networking website.

1) Ning.com- First and most popular one is ning.com. It takes less than one minute to create a free online social networking website with the help of ning.com and people get a free social networking website of name like yourname.ning.com. People can upgrade their service to paid one to use their own personal domain name like yourname.com instead of yourname.ning.com and use more numbers of features.
2) SocialGO.com – This is similar service like ning.com.
3) Spruz.c…

Book Review-“Living with the Himalayan Masters”

India holds a great history behind it which is full of many cultures, traditions, religions and wisdom, however, today the major problem with most of the youth of India is that it is forgetting the importance of ancient India cultures. One of the major attractions of our culture is life lived by great mystics and masters in Himalayas. From many centuries, this tradition is very much prevalent in India according to which people go to Himalayas for becoming one with higher conscious.

These great masters and mystics follow the path of renunciation (leaving comforts and pains of world both mentally and physically). We all must have heard number of stories associated with these great masters, however, due to lack of information and knowledge we mostly find it hard to know the real truth. For an ordinary person, it is very difficult to exactly know or understand the life of our saints and masters. Most of the time, these people are believed as mad, psychics, frauds because we do not know or …

Alert for E-mail users

Dear all e-mail users, I want to request you to remain alert while using our email accounts and avoid responding or accepting number of reward or money sharing schemes offered in your mailbox. In the recent times, numbers of Indians have become the victim of these frauds due to their ignorance and somewhat greed. Numbers of criminal organisations mainly settled in poor African countries are behind these frauds. Recently, RBI has also issued security alert in this matter. However, still large numbers of people are not aware about these kinds of frauds and become the victim of them. Most of victims receive mails 1) telling them that they have won a lottery with automatic email draw 2) a person want to share some fortune with you 3) a widow needs your help for getting money 4) a bank employee of foreign bank needs your assistance in money transfer and number of other new and realistic methods created on the daily basic. Target of these mails are mostly new online users who have no knowle…

Loksabha Election 2019 who will win?

Next Loksabha (General elections) may be a year ahead but still, we can hear lots of buzz about them. As this year will pass, we will hear more talks on this topic. Next year, when Indian will again come out of their homes to vote for next government at the center, then we will get the answer that People of India are still with Narendra Modi or they are going to break with him this time. 

In the last Loksabha election, BJP won these elections single-handedly without the need of any external support. This was a great show by any single political party to attain majority at the center and it happened after a long time. Due to this huge support of the Indians voters, BJP government got the confidence to take some of the strong decisions related to India like demonetization and GST.  

Narendra Modi and his BJP government are very confident of winning again 2019 general elections as they believe that Modi's magic is still working. In the last 10 years, BJP has emerged as a big political …

Is it right to use Movies to score Politics? #AccidentalPrimeMinister

India is a country of controversies and we keep on seeing newer and newer controversies emerging daily. Some controversies die fast while others continue for years. The recent controversy is about the Anupam Kher's latest movie "Accidental Prime Minister" in which he is playing the role of formal Prime Minister of India Manmohan Singh. 

This controversy emerged with the release of the trailer of movie Accidental Prime Minister. The Congress party blames that this movie is made to spoil the image of Gandhi family while Anupam Kher claims that his movie is based on the book written by Baru Sanjaya whose role is played by Akshay Khanna in the movie. 

Mostly in India, we see politics on the single line that "I am right and you are wrong". The focus of all political parties is more on proving others wrong than proving themselves right. They want your votes not because they are right but because others are wrong. In such kind of politics, we hardly see right things pro…