Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Loksabha Election 2009 predictions for Punjab

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There are total 13 Loksabha seats in Punjab for which elections will take place in fourth and fifth phase on 7 May and 13 May respectively. In fourth phase, voting for 4 Loksabha seats will take place while voting for remaining 9 seats will take place in fifth phase. In last 2004 Lok Sabha election, Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP alliance won 11 seats out of total 13 seats (SAD 8, BJP 3), whereas Congress was only able to win just two seats.

In these elections, SAD-BJP alliance got 44% votes as compared to 34% votes got by Congress. However, in 2007 assembly election Congress improved its vote share and seats, where SAD failed in making government in Punjab at its own. In last two years, SAD lead government has done number of things to improve their image in state and repeat history of 2004 elections. SAD-BJP alliance started their poll campaign six months before announcement of Loksabha elections by announcing candidates and publishing full page advertisements.

Despite all these, preparations SAD-BJP alliance may not succeed in repeating success story of 2004, as SAD-BJP alliance is likely to get between 7 to 9 seats with SAD getting 5-7 and BJP 2 whereas Congress is likely to win 4-6 seats. At present, Congress is not very strong in state and it is also likely that it will get fewer votes than 2007 assembly elections. BSP can also make surprise entry from Punjab by winning 1-2 seats. However, final exact position will be available in front of us on 16 May.

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