Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Chances of BJP (NDA) in Loksabha Election 2009 (opinion poll)

In just few months, we will see Loksabha (parliamentary) Elections in India. These elections will determine that which party will form new government at centre. Presently, Congress lead UPA government is in centre. However, next election results can change ruling party in centre. The main contender from opposition parties to rule centre is BJP which is thinking of making government at centre with the help of NDA partner parties.

BJP has already made government at centre with the help of these allies during last Loksabha in the leadership of Shri Atal Bihari Vajpeyi. This time also BJP is very confident of making government at centre in the leadership of Lal Krishan Advani, who has also remained deputy PM of India during last Loksabha. However, many analysts believe that road is not as smooth for BJP and NDA because despite showing good performance in many state elections BJP can very well remain short of magic number.

State of NDA allies is also same and some of its allies like TDP and TC have already left NDA to form new alliances. BJP is really hoping for some kind of miracle to make a government at centre. The major problem for BJP will be to perform well in UP where already BSP and Samajwadi party have made their strong holds. In UP BJP is expected to win 10-15 seats which will no way help it to win more than 130 seats. UP is one of the biggest state in India and it is also very important when it come to Loksabha seats because it has 80 valuable Loksabha seats.

BJP need at least 30-40 of these seats to win more than 150 seats in Loksabha elections. Present NDA allies are expected to get between 55-75 seats. Now even if we add maximum number of seats for BJP and NDA, NDA can hope to get 225 seats which are still 50 seats less for making a government. In this case BJP can also look towards its old allies like TDP and TC, who are expected to get 20-30 seats.

Therefore, BJP can only think of making a government at centre if they win maximum number of seats in their ruled states plus they show some good performance in states where other parties have governments. At the end, I can say that BJP need a big miracle or issue to win these elections and form a government at centre. However, Indian elections are always unpredictable and we can never know that what is stored next for us.

Also visit-Who will win 2009 Loksabha (Parliament) election in India? (Opinion poll)
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