Who will win 2009 assembly election in Andhra Pradesh? (opinion poll)

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Assembly elections of Andhra Pradesh will take place simultaneously with Loksabha election 2009 on 16 April and 23 April in first and second phase respectively. There are total 294 assembly seats in Andhra Pradesh and any party is required to win more than 147 seats for making a new government in state. Present main fight in Andhra Pradesh is between Congress and TDP-TRS (Telugu Desam Party- The Telengana Rashtra Samiti) and Left parties combine.

Presently, Congress has government in state and it won last 2004 assembly election with TRS and Left parties. In 2004 election, Congress-TRS-Left Parties alliance got landslide victory by winning 226 seats (186 Congress, 26 TRS, 9 CPM, 6 CPI). However, later TRS and Left parties left this Congress lead alliance and now they are part of TDP lead alliance. Present chief minister in Andhra Pradesh is YS Rajasekhar Reddy, who have achieved good popularity for himself and his government.

Therefore, Congress is confident of winning these elections on the ground of good image of YSR Reddy. Lately, opposition parties in Andhra have started targeting CM Reddy for his corruption and his role in Satyam deal. However, still YSR Reddy government hold a good ground in Andhra Pradesh for running a smooth and trouble free government in AP. This time AP assembly elections have become more complex due to the entry of Praja Rajyam party launched by popular Telugu and Hindi film star Chiranjeevi.

Chiranjeevi’s political party has caused number of worries for both Congress and TDP alliance because of huge popularity of Chiranjeevi, while announcing name of his party, Chiranjeevi showed optimism that his party will play role of king maker in next assembly election by winning 30-60 seats. Though, many political analysts believe that Chiranjeevi’s party will cause more trouble to other parties than winning seats in state. Most of them are predicting 10-30 seats for his party because there are around 50-60 seats in AP where his party is likely to give good fight to other parties.

Chiranjeevi’s political party will only be in king maker position if it succeeds in winning 30 plus seats in AP. Similar case is also present with BJP, which won only 2 seats in last elections. This time also there are no good chances for BJP; however, BJP is likely to increase its seat number by winning 5-20 seats in AP. Presence of straight fight between four parties at large number of seats has made it very difficult to exactly predict outcome of 2009 AP assembly elections, however, most of political analysts believe that Congress is likely to retain government in AP, though, number of total seats can decrease from last time.

By summing up all the available data, the predictions for AP assembly can go in this way Congress 140-170 seats, TDP combine 90-120 seats, Praja Rajyam 10-20 seats, BJP 5-20 seats, others 20-40 seats. Therefore, Congress is likely to retain government in state despite losing it s 2004 allies.

6 comments:

  1. Why you are giving very less seats to PRP (Chiranjivi Party).

    Moreover is this your opinion based on any survey or just your thought sharing with us.

    According to me - The latest trend is :
    1) congress is becoming weak day by day.
    2)TDP alliance is strengthing day by day.
    3)PRP will surely do better than your thoughts.

    And the last but not the least is PRP will damage the chances of congress more than TDP.

    We here value your thoughts on high esteem.So please do the Home work and Ground work more accurately.

    Thanks.

    Regards
    Your well wisher.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I agree with you completely on most things you have said. But I feel you may have over estimated the grand alliance. I believe it will be a Congress show all the way because both KCR and Naidu have credibility issues. Congress it will be.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Why all of you miss Loksatta as strong party? Apart from JP there are many leards whom media is not showing. I'm very optimistic that LSP will make a big diffrence in defeting TDP, Congress and PRP (old wine in new bottle). PRP lost it's credibility. Congress and TDP rotten. I'm a great..diehard fan of Chiru n Pawan..but I support LSP. We need to think rationally.

    ReplyDelete
  4. By looking on the day before the polling date,the voter looks like want to express the silent revolution by giving chance to PRP,the reason is people are fed up with the past and current govt as they failed of social justice to the people,according to my assumption it might be a new party which will form govt 2009 AP elections,inspite of the drama created by media reports for present and past govt ,what do you think?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hey i think cine stars should be banned from politics .i mean everyone knows chiru is selling tickets to the highest bidders..Ashamed at times at calling myself an Andhrite when i hear people who want to vote for Chiru bceause he is a an actor.

    ReplyDelete
  6. According to my view there is a surprising change in the election results compare to previous results.......because there is a silent party but a powerful party who will change the present political culture with good 50 guarantees.......its the party established with good ideas thinking of our future............its the party with fair culture......................its none other than loksatta........
    Loksatta will show some good change in the election results with the people support..............and iam dam sure Loksatta will form the government in the next election.........

    ReplyDelete

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