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Who will win Bihar Assembly Election 2010?

Bihar Assembly Election 2010 is coming near so speculations about next Chief Minister of Bihar have also started in media. At present Nitesh Kumar lead JDU-BJP combine is ruling state of Bihar and Lalu Prasad lead RJD-LJP combine will give them straight fight in this election. Congress which is going alone in these elections can spoil game for one alliance; though, there are very less chances that it will be able to put any impressive show in Bihar. Main fight in Bihar Assembly Election 2010 will be between Nitesh Kumar lead JDU-BJP alliance and Lalu Yadav lead RJD-LJP alliance.

Congress, other small parties and independents can perform well at few selected places; however, main fight will remain between these two big political alliances. In 2005 Bihar Assembly Election, BJP-JDU showed great performance by winning 142 seats and forced RJD-LJP-Congress alliance to settle with 65 seats only. Before 2005 assembly election, It was very hard for any person to even imagine that anyone can over through Lalu Yadav from Bihar. The main reason of failure of Lalu Yadav was negligence in development of Bihar and wide spread corruption. Therefore, people of Bihar selected Nitesh Kumar as his alternative and to some extent; Nitesh Kumar has remained successful in bringing back Bihar on development map.

Bihar is one Indian state where caste and religion based politics mark state politics in big way and many people still ignore development over caste based politics. Lalu Yadav has earned good image for himself while serving as Indian Railway Minister and making Indian Railway a profitable organisation. Overall, Bihar politics is very complex and results are also likely to remain unpredictable at many constituencies. In 2009 Loksabha Election JDU-BJP combine swept Bihar Election by winning 32 seats out of 40 seats. In 2010 Bihar Assembly election, it will be hard for JDU-BJP alliance maintain same performance; though, there are good chances that JDU-BJP alliance likely to form next government in Bihar.

JDU as party is likely to increase its seats in coming election while BJP can lose some ground. Lalu Yadav lead RJD-JLP alliance is also likely to show to better performance as compared to last Assembly election; however, this performance will not be enough for them to make a government in Bihar. Only a swing of 1% votes at around 35% constituencies of Bihar can change result in any way; therefore, margins of winning candidates will decrease in these elections. These are initial observations related to Bihar Assembly Election 2010 and soon, I will bring more accurate predictions.


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Bihar Assembly Election 2010

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