Loksabha Election 2009 predictions Tamil Nadu (opinion poll)

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Tamil Nadu is likely to play very crucial role in Loksabha Election 2009 because of 39 Loksabha seats plus one seat of Union territory Pondicherry. In Tamil Nadu we can see main fight between AIADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam), MDMK(Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam), Left parties and PMK (Pattali Makkal Katchi) combine with Congress and DMK(Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam) combine (UPA).

In last Loksabha election, PMK, MDMK and left parties were part of UPA alliance in Tamil Nadu; therefore, this alliance get major victory by winning 40 seats out of 40 seats (DMK 16, Congress 10, PMK 5, MDMK 4, CPM 2, and CPI 2). 2004 Loksabha election were big disaster for AIADMK and its alliance partner BJP because AIADMK and BJP even failed in getting a single seat. This time PMK, MDMK and Left parties have changed their side and joined AIADMK lead alliance, therefore, we can hope to see reverse of 2004 election results in Tamil Nadu.

However, Tamil Nadu politics have become very complex due to presence of number of small parties like Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK). New political party DMDK surprised everyone when it got 10% votes in 2006 assembly election. Congress tried hard to make alliance with DMDK, however, DMDK leader Vijaykant has decided to go alone. Though, BJP is not a big force in Tamil Nadu and it is not a member of AIADMK alliance like last elections but it can give some fight at few seats.

In half of Tamil Nadu seats, we can see direct fight between three or four contestants, therefore, it becomes very difficult to exactly predict outcome of Loksabha results. AIADMK is likely to show good performance in these elections because of support of new allies and AIADMK is likely to emerge as biggest political party in Tamil Nadu. AIADMK, PMK, MDMK and left parties alliance is likely to get 23 to 32 seats in Loksabha election as AIADMK 14-20, PMK 3-6, MDMK 1-3 and Left parties 3-6. Congress and DMK alliance is likely to win 7 to 19 seats as Congress 3-6 and DMK 5-12.

One things is becoming clear about 2009 Loksabha election that Jayalalita will play very crucial role in the formation of next government. 2009 Loksabha election results can be a big disaster for Congress because it is likely to loss good numbers of seats in Tamil Nadu.
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