Who will win Rajasthan assembly election 2008?(Opinion Poll)

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People of Rajasthan will vote for their new assembly on 4th Dec,2008 and just after four days on 8th Dec, we will learn who is going to be next CM of Rajasthan. Presently, Rajasthan is under BJP rule and present chief minister of Rajasthan is Vashundhara Raje Scindia. In last assembly election in 2003 BJP surprised everyone by securing more than 120 seats in Rajasthan assembly. In these elections, there was 6.5% positive swing in the favour of BJP and negative 9% swing for Congress.

This was overall historical win for BJP because BJP got support from all major castes of state like Meenas, Gujjars, Jatts and Rajputs. Last assembly elections were major shock for Congress because Congress was reduced to 57 seats for the first time. Well now what we can expect from 2008 assembly elections. Is it BJP again or Congress will repeat history. It is very difficult to give exact answer to this question because caste dynamics are total unpredictable. Gujjars who have 5% vote bank in Rajasthan have already said that they will not support either Congress or BJP.

Same situation is also present with Meenas. This whole situation will have either positive or negative impact on the final results for Congress or BJP (Good for one and bad for other). Though, it is difficult to predict final outcome however, BJP looks to hold slight edge over Congress in these elections. Major reason behind this is absence of strong regional leadership in Rajasthan. There is emptiness in Congress when we look for regional leaders in Congress, whereas Vashundhara Raje Scindia has emerged as strong leader in BJP and Rajasthan.

BJP may again gain power in Rajasthan, however number of seats for BJP will decrease considerable. BJP can get 93-103 seats while Congress will improve its seats with 75-85 seats and 10-15 seats for others. Therefore, we can even see BJP making government with support from independents. There are 30-35 seats in Rajasthan where we can find very complex caste dynamics; final results of these seats will determine who will be next CM of Rajasthan. BSP can play crucial role in these election by cutting Congress Vote bank, we can also see slight increase in BSP seat telly.

Also visit-Who will win Chhattisgarh Assembly Election 2008?
Who will win Delhi Assembly Election 2008?
Live assembly election Results 2008 (Delhi, MP, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Rajasthan)

1 comment:

  1. 45 seats for BJP, 100to 105 for congress ,25 to 30 for BSP,20 to 25 others n independents

    ReplyDelete

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