North East state of India Assam will go for assembly election in two phases next month on 4th April and 11th April (For detailed Election dates visit- Assembly Election 2011 Assam Dates) These elections will decide the fate of decade old Congress rule over state. There are total of 126 assembly seats in Assam and any party or alliance need support of 64 MLAs to form new government in state. Presently, Congress is running government in Assam with the support of Bodoland People’s front (BPF).
Chief Minister of Assam, Tarun Gogoi is very confident of third consecutive win for Congress in this election because of good progress done by his government in last ten years. To some extent, Assam has emerged as much peaceful and progressive state during his tenure; however, victory route is not so simple for him. In 2006 Assam Assembly election, Congress emerged as single largest party by winning 55 seats out of total 126 seats and it made government with support of 11 Bodoland People’s front (BPF) MLAs.
The main opposition parties are Asom Gana Parishad (Assam Peoples Association) AGP, Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) and AIUDF All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) is largest opposition party in Assam and it has alliance with parties like CPM, CPI, ASDC etc. This alliance got 28 seats in last Assembly election. BJP and AIUDF do hold good strength in Assam and they both got 10 seats in last assembly election.
The main good news for Congress is that there is no unity between opposition parties and Congress is likely to get good advantage from fight of opposition parties among themselves. Congress vote share in last election was 31 % however, it got 55 seats because of division of opposition votes. AGP vote share in last election was 20.4% while vote share of BJP was 12%. Therefore, any future alliance between opposition parties in Assam can create many problems for ruling Congress; on the other hand, Congress looks for comfortable win if opposition parties continued to fight among themselves.