Who will win 2009 assembly elections in Orissa?

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2009 Assembly elections for Orissa state will take place simultaneously with Loksabha elections. Voting for Orissa assembly and Loksabha seats will take place in two phases on April 16 and April 23. Results of these voting will be announced on May 16, 2009 with Loksabha election results. Present fight in Orissa is between BJD (Biju Janata Dal) and Congress party. Biju Janata Dal came to existence in 1997 when Naveen Patnaik son of former chief minister of Orissa Late Biju Patnaik split with parent party Janata Party to float his own party BJD.

In 1997, Naveen Patnaik joined BJP lead NDA alliance and come to power by winning assembly elections of 2000 and 2004. However, this time BJD decided to go alone and split its alliance with BJP to go alone. BJD has presently joined third front to fight these assembly elections. There are total 147 assembly seats in Orissa and any party is required to win 74 seats for making a government in state. In last 2004, election BJD was biggest party with 61 seats and formed government with coalition partner BJP which won 32 parties, while congress was only able to win 38 seats.

Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) also won 4 seats in these elections while 12 seats went to independent. Present chief minister Naveen Patnaik is confident of winning these elections again even without BJP. The main reason behind this confident of Naveen is good performance by BJD is last local elections while poor performance by BJP. As per most of latest surveys and predictions available today, it is very likely that BJD will make next government in state by winning 75-90 seats whereas Congress is likely to get 30-40 seats.

BJP is likely to suffer big setback by getting 10-20 seats. Others like JMM, Left parties, Independents etc to win 15-30 seats. For loksabha seats number can be like this BJD 12-16, Congress 5-8 and BJP 2-4. BJP is definitely biggest loser in this whole game because it is likely to win less seats plus it has lost a good coalition partner.

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